2014-04-26 10:52:28 -04:00
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vannevar
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2014-04-26 11:54:15 -04:00
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/van'@var/ , n. A bogus technological prediction or a foredoomed engineering
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concept, esp. one that fails by implicitly assuming that technologies
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develop linearly, incrementally, and in isolation from one another when in
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fact the learning curve tends to be highly nonlinear, revolutions are
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common, and competition is the rule. The prototype was Vannevar Bush's
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prediction of electronic brains the size of the Empire State Building with a
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Niagara-Falls-equivalent cooling system for their tubes and relays, a
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prediction made at a time when the semiconductor effect had already been
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demonstrated. Other famous vannevars have included magnetic-bubble memory,
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LISP machines, videotex , and a paper from the late 1970s that computed a
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purported ultimate limit on areal density for ICs that was in fact less than
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the routine densities of 5 years later.
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