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2.6 KiB
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15 lines
2.6 KiB
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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1" standalone="no"?>
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<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>vannevar</title><link rel="stylesheet" href="../../jargon.css" type="text/css"/><meta name="generator" content="DocBook XSL Stylesheets V1.61.0"/><link rel="home" href="../index.html" title="The Jargon File"/><link rel="up" href="../V.html" title="V"/><link rel="previous" href="vanity-domain.html" title="vanity domain"/><link rel="next" href="vaporware.html" title="vaporware"/></head><body><div class="navheader"><table width="100%" summary="Navigation header"><tr><th colspan="3" align="center">vannevar</th></tr><tr><td width="20%" align="left"><a accesskey="p" href="vanity-domain.html">Prev</a><EFBFBD></td><th width="60%" align="center">V</th><td width="20%" align="right"><EFBFBD><a accesskey="n" href="vaporware.html">Next</a></td></tr></table><hr/></div><dt><a id="vannevar"/><dt xmlns="" id="vannevar"><b>vannevar</b>: <span xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" class="pronunciation">/van'@<40>var/</span>, <span xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" class="grammar">n.</span></dt></dt><dd><p> A bogus technological prediction or a foredoomed engineering
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concept, esp. one that fails by implicitly assuming that technologies
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develop linearly, incrementally, and in isolation from one another when in
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fact the learning curve tends to be highly nonlinear, revolutions are
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common, and competition is the rule. The prototype was Vannevar Bush's
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prediction of ‘electronic brains’ the size of the Empire State
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Building with a Niagara-Falls-equivalent cooling system for their tubes and
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relays, a prediction made at a time when the semiconductor effect had
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already been demonstrated. Other famous vannevars have included
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magnetic-bubble memory, LISP machines, <a href="videotex.html"><i class="glossterm">videotex</i></a>, and
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a paper from the late 1970s that computed a purported ultimate limit on
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areal density for ICs that was in fact less than the routine densities of 5
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years later.</p></dd><div class="navfooter"><hr/><table width="100%" summary="Navigation footer"><tr><td width="40%" align="left"><a accesskey="p" href="vanity-domain.html">Prev</a><EFBFBD></td><td width="20%" align="center"><a accesskey="u" href="../V.html">Up</a></td><td width="40%" align="right"><EFBFBD><a accesskey="n" href="vaporware.html">Next</a></td></tr><tr><td width="40%" align="left" valign="top">vanity domain<69></td><td width="20%" align="center"><a accesskey="h" href="../index.html">Home</a></td><td width="40%" align="right" valign="top"><EFBFBD>vaporware</td></tr></table></div></body></html>
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